市建局昨日公布，嘉里建設 (00683) 以55.878億元，奪得土瓜灣鴻福街/銀漢街項目，即每呎樓面地價約12,591元，並較恒地 (00012) 約兩個月前奪得的市建局土瓜灣庇利街/榮光街發展項目 (首個以「小區規劃」批出的重建項目) 的每呎樓面地價約11,414元，高出逾10%。

嘉里發展香港區總經理湯耀宗表示，集團非常榮幸投得上述項目。集團早於2005年與市建局合作發展西營盤縉城峰，而是次中標的項目位處九龍市區核心地段，集團將運用建構高端住宅及與市區重建局合作的經驗，強化項目的規劃設計及商業部分的資產管理，並在設計、營造及資產管理持續引入可持續發展元素，預料項目將可進一步加強集團於香港的發展優勢。

估計推售呎價約2.47萬

假設每平方呎建築成本約5,000元，連地價及10%發水樓面計，預料項目的總投資額約80.29億元。而若加上兩成利潤及8成實用率計算，估計項目日後推售時實用呎價約2.47萬元。

有測量師指，項目規模較大，設計可塑性較高，並發展以中小型單位為主。

項目佔地約4.9萬平方呎，總樓面約44萬平方呎，可提供750伙。於截標前，市場估值約48.8億至60億元，每呎樓面地價約1.1萬至1.35萬元，反映成交價屬市場預期之內。

(經濟日報)

富藝斯拍賣行總部搬遷 租西九管理局大樓4.8萬呎

正值西九管理局招標西九文化區商業地之際，富藝斯拍賣行公布租用文化區內西九文化區管理局大樓6層，合共4.8萬平方呎樓面，料為文化區內首宗辦公室租賃成交。

文化區內 首宗辦公室租賃

國際拍賣行富藝斯 (Phillips) 現時租用中環聖佐治大廈，昨日該公司宣布，將於2022年秋季將亞洲區總部遷址位於西九文化區西九文化區管理局大樓，將租用6層、合共逾4.8萬平方呎樓面，包括地面三層商業及零售空間、頂樓兩層展廳及拍賣場，以及一層辦公室空間。

周邊最指標商廈為環球貿易廣場 (ICC) 今年呎租介乎85至92元水平，屬於九龍區指標水平，至於鄰近尖沙咀海港城一帶，今年初騰訊 (00700) 則以呎租55元，租用港威大廈五座高層1萬平方呎樓面。

據富藝斯指，其中頂樓擁有14米高、坐擁維港海景的落地窗。富藝斯行政主席愛德華•杜爾曼 (Edward Dolman) 表示，計劃鞏固富藝斯在亞洲拍賣市場的地位。西九文化區管理局行政總裁馮程淑儀指，願景是為香港和世界打造一個多姿多彩的新文化地帶。

(經濟日報)

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宏安4.2億統一牛頭角舊樓 每呎樓面9060元 重建商住項目

近年本港土地供應短缺，市區舊樓具重建價值，不少財團透過併購舊樓，以增加土地儲備；最新宏安併購的牛頭角定業街12至26號舊樓，消息人士指，該項目以約4.2億成功統一業權發展，每方呎樓面收購價約9060元，料日後將重建成商住項目。

市區優質地皮罕有，近年吸引各路發展商於牛頭角一帶舊樓「插旗」發展，最新宏安亦積極拓展牛頭角一帶版圖發展，該公司併購多年的定業街12至26號舊樓，消息人士指，上述項目已成功併購100%業權發展，涉及總金額約4.2億，若以可建總樓面約46359方呎計，每方呎樓面地價約9060元。安宏回覆本報查詢時指，確認上述項目為該公司的併購項目。

可建樓面逾4.6萬呎

有代理表示，上述定業街12至26號舊樓由港置該行併購，近期已完成併購，他認為，該項目鄰近港鐵站，極具重建價值，而且該盤鄰近將來亦有不少重建項目，未來區內將展現全新面貌，是一個全新住宅區。

上述舊樓位於定業街12至26號，涉及多幢樓高5層的商住舊樓，地下為商鋪、樓上則為住宅樓層。上述舊樓早於1972年至1978年之間落成，至今樓齡超過43年。該舊樓群毗鄰觀塘道休憩處，鄰近港鐵牛頭角站，步行前往約6分鐘。整個項目地盤面積約5151方呎，若以重建地積比9倍重建發展，可建總樓面約46359方呎。

距港鐵站數分鐘步程

事實上，除上述項目外，周邊不少舊樓亦獲發展商收購，如萬科香港今年9月申請強制拍賣的定富街45至47號華發樓、49至51號安賢樓、53至63號定勝樓3幢舊樓；據土地審裁處文件顯示，目前萬科已集齊約91.67%至93.75%的業權，餘下5個單位並未成功收購，市場對整個項目估值約3.59229251億。

上述舊樓位於定富街45至63號 (單號)，現址為3幢樓高6層的商住舊樓，分別為45至47號華發樓、49至51號安賢樓、53至63號定勝樓，地下約有10個商鋪，樓上則為住宅樓層，共提供50個住宅單位；上述舊樓早於1971年至1972年之間落成，至今樓齡逾50年。有業內人士指出，不少發展商面對奪地難問題，故吸引財團加入併購舊樓行列，在經濟逐步復甦下，部分發展商更加快收購步伐。

(星島日報)

荃灣全幢商住樓1.2億沽

儘管變種病毒來勢洶洶，惟民生區物業仍受捧，再錄大手成交，消息指，荃灣兆和街全幢商住樓以約1.2億易手，呎價約1.85萬，料買家享回報約2.35厘。

綜合市場消息指出，荃灣兆和街31及33號全幢，總樓面約6486方呎，以約1.2億易手，呎價約18501元。據知情人士透露，該鋪現時由按摩店及批發公司以約23.5萬承租，料買家享回報約2.35厘。

平均呎價1.85萬

有代理指出，上述鋪位具合併重建價值，成交價屬合理水平，儘管踏入年尾，惟本港疫情走勢平穩，帶動近期鋪位市場頻錄大手成交，鋪位市況受零售市道影響，若中港兩地通關，料明年首季鋪位租金穩步上揚。

盛滙基金創辦人李根興評論指，上述鋪位人流量不俗，加上門面闊近400呎，於日後亦具博收購潛力，但該物業為住宅契，對投資者吸引力稍遜，成交價屬市價水平。

柯士甸道地鋪5800萬沽

另外，消息指，佐敦柯士甸道55至73號幸運大廈地下鋪，面積約1020方呎，以約5800萬售出，呎價約56863元，據悉，該鋪由食肆以13萬租用，料買家享租金回報約2.69厘。據悉，原業主於1996年9月以1261萬買入，持貨25年帳面獲利4539萬，物業期間升值約3.6倍。

(星島日報)

東傲新錄成交呎價9600元

疫市下工廈「硬淨」，市場頻錄成交，由麒豐資本與傅老榕家族旗下廣興置業集團合作發展的新蒲崗工廈東傲新錄成交，為中層單位02室，面積約738方呎，成交價約708.5萬，呎價約9600元。

該項目樓花期逾半年，該項目自推出以來反應不俗，早前推出3，11，12，15及16樓，已售出逾90％單位，套現逾6億，其中16樓全層，建築面積12769方呎，成交呎價9500元，涉資逾1.21億。該項目高層以呎價1.15萬成交，創區內工廈呎價新高。

洪英偉早前表示，對銷情感滿意，項目為區內於過去15年以來首個全新工廈拆售項目。對於新變種病毒Omicron來勢洶洶，洪氏認為，疫情走勢難以預測，惟中港兩地有機會通關，屆時將對工商市場帶來刺激作用。

嘉力每呎6194元市價沽

工廈市場頻錄成交，綜合市場消息指出，荃灣嘉力工業中心A座低層2室，面積約1017方呎，以約630萬售出，呎價約6194元，業內人士指出，上述成交價貼近市價。

據代理行資料顯示，該工廈A座中層7室，面積1862方呎，於上月以800萬售出，呎價約4296元；另一成交為A座中層17室，面積852方呎，於上月以395萬售出，呎價約4636元。柴灣新業工業大廈低層B室，面積約3044方呎，以約1100萬售出，呎價約3613元。

(星島日報)

Kerry ends 16-year URA drought with $5.5b win

Kerry Properties (0683) has won the bid for the Urban Renewal Authority's Hung Fook Street/Ngan Hon Street development project in To Kwa Wan for HK$5.59 billion, beating seven other competitors.

That is also the first time that Kerry has won a URA project since 2005.

The project covers a site area of 4,581 square meters and will provide a maximum total gross floor area of 41,229 square meters upon completion.

The successful developer will be required to construct the development in compliance with the requirements of the master design control of To Kwa Wan as set out in the agreement of the project to create synergy with adjoining development projects of the URA,

The project will also enhance the livability of the district by adopting place-making and smart initiatives.

Separately, The Wharf (0004) has paid HK$700 million together with four sites totaling 190,000 sq ft in Tung Chung to Ebenezer School in exchange for the redevelopment of the current site of the school at Pok Fu Lam, local media said.

The developer plans to build a luxury residential project with sea views, whose market value is expected to be as high as HK$10 billion, the report said.

In other news, The Yoho Hub project atop Yuen Long MTR Station unveiled the first batch of 206 units with an average price of HK$19,899 after discounts, the highest among new projects in Yuen Long.

Ranging from 325 sq ft to 1,036 sq ft, the batch provides one-bedroom units to four-bedroom units.

The cheapest flat is priced at HK$6.85 million after discounts, or at HK$21,082 per sq ft, the developer Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) said.

Meanwhile, the mortgage-related one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate is expected to stay below 0.4 percent while the mortgage interest rate is to reach 1.7 percent as the greenback is turning strong, a mortgage broker said.

That came as investment house Morgan Stanley expected Hong Kong property prices to fall 2 percent year-on-year next year and the volume of transactions to drop by 5 percent to 15 percent.

(The Standard)

Hong Kong’s home prices to fall in 2022 as stock market slump creates ‘negative wealth effect’, Morgan Stanley says, marking a halt in city’s decade-long real estate bull run

Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong’s 2022 home prices to fall by 2 per cent, going against the market’s consensus of gains between 3 and 10 per cent

Sales volume of lived-in homes may contract by 15 per cent next year, in a drastic retreat from the 29 per cent surge in the first 11 months of this year, the bank said

The prices of Hong Kong’s lived-in homes may decline in 2022, reversing 13 years of gains, as a plunge in the stock market has created a “negative wealth effect” on investors and speculators, Morgan Stanley said.

Overall prices may fall by 2 per cent next year, the US bank’s equity analyst Praveen Choudhary wrote in a December 15 report, going against the market’s consensus for prices to gain by between 3 per cent and up to 10 per cent.

Sales volume of lived-in homes may contract by 15 per cent next year in the secondary market, in a drastic retreat from the 29 per cent surge in the first 11 months of this year, he said. Transactions of newly built homes may shrink by 5 per cent next year, compared with the 24-per cent growth so far this year.

The contrarian forecast was the result of the 18 per cent slump in the Hang Seng stock benchmark since July 1 – the world’s second-biggest loser this year – that “suggests a negative wealth effect which has historically resulted in a decline in property prices,” he wrote.

There are signs that home prices in Hong Kong, the world’s most expensive major urban centre to live in for the 10th straight year in 2019, may have reached a turning point. Second-hand home prices fell by 0.86 per cent in October from a peak in August, the biggest monthly decline in 14 months as the city’s commercial banks turned cautious on valuations.

As a result, property-related stocks may perform worse than even the Hang Seng Index (HSI) in 2022, Morgan Stanley said, downgrading its view on the sector to “cautious” from “attractive.”

“The recent decline in the HSI generally should be followed by property sector underperformance due to a negative wealth effect, based on historical data,” he wrote. “We expect the HK property stock index to underperform the Hang Seng Index in 2022.”

Rising interest rates will also act as the brake on rising home prices, as Hong Kong’s monetary policy runs in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve, which has foreshadowed three rate increases of 25 basis points each in 2022, to be followed by three increases in 2023 and two in 2024.

Still, Hong Kong’s commercial banks are unlikely to raise their mortgage rates immediately after rising interest rates, a mortgage broker said. The market also knows how to adjust to keep pace, as shown by the 16 per cent discounts on lived-in flats offered after Hong Kong’s banks raised their lending rates in September 2018 by 12.5 percentage points.

“Banks in Hong Kong may increase their prime rates in the second half of 2022 only if US inflation rises at a faster-than- expected pace,” the mortgage broker said.

Contrary to Morgan Stanley’s forecast of doom, property analysts and consultants remain bullish.

A property agency has forecast a 3 per cent increase in home prices next year for Hong Kong, while another agency sees growth of up to 5 per cent, and the agencies projected prices to increase by between 5 and 10 per cent.

The positive outlook in 2022 is due to limited supply of homes, Hong Kong’s improving economy and the expectation that a reopening of the city’s border with mainland China would give transactions – and therefore prices – a leg up.

Underscoring the bullishness, Sun Hung Kai Properties (SHKP), the city’s largest developer by market value, released the first 206 units of The Yoho Hub residential project above the Yuen Long subway station at an average price of HK$19,889 per square foot, a record launch price for the neighbourhood.

“While supply remains limited, potential new regulations on that front are unknown and can only be negative,” Morgan Stanley said. “Extra demand could come from the HK/China border opening, but it only affects 10 per cent of the volume at the high-end.”