市建局昨日公布，嘉里建设 (00683) 以55.878亿元，夺得土瓜湾鸿福街/银汉街项目，即每呎楼面地价约12,591元，并较恒地 (00012) 约两个月前夺得的市建局土瓜湾庇利街/荣光街发展项目 (首个以「小区规划」批出的重建项目) 的每呎楼面地价约11,414元，高出逾10%。

嘉里发展香港区总经理汤耀宗表示，集团非常荣幸投得上述项目。集团早于2005年与市建局合作发展西营盘縉城峰，而是次中标的项目位处九龙市区核心地段，集团将运用建构高端住宅及与市区重建局合作的经验，强化项目的规划设计及商业部分的资产管理，并在设计、营造及资产管理持续引入可持续发展元素，预料项目将可进一步加强集团于香港的发展优势。

估计推售呎价约2.47万

假设每平方呎建筑成本约5,000元，连地价及10%发水楼面计，预料项目的总投资额约80.29亿元。而若加上两成利润及8成实用率计算，估计项目日后推售时实用呎价约2.47万元。

有测量师指，项目规模较大，设计可塑性较高，并发展以中小型单位为主。

项目佔地约4.9万平方呎，总楼面约44万平方呎，可提供750伙。于截标前，市场估值约48.8亿至60亿元，每呎楼面地价约1.1万至1.35万元，反映成交价属市场预期之内。

(经济日报)

富艺斯拍卖行总部搬迁 租西九管理局大楼4.8万呎

正值西九管理局招标西九文化区商业地之际，富艺斯拍卖行公布租用文化区内西九文化区管理局大楼6层，合共4.8万平方呎楼面，料为文化区内首宗办公室租赁成交。

文化区内 首宗办公室租赁

国际拍卖行富艺斯 (Phillips) 现时租用中环圣佐治大厦，昨日该公司宣布，将于2022年秋季将亚洲区总部迁址位于西九文化区西九文化区管理局大楼，将租用6层、合共逾4.8万平方呎楼面，包括地面三层商业及零售空间、顶楼两层展厅及拍卖场，以及一层办公室空间。

周边最指标商厦为环球贸易广场 (ICC) 今年呎租介乎85至92元水平，属于九龙区指标水平，至于邻近尖沙咀海港城一带，今年初腾讯 (00700) 则以呎租55元，租用港威大厦五座高层1万平方呎楼面。

据富艺斯指，其中顶楼拥有14米高、坐拥维港海景的落地窗。富艺斯行政主席爱德华•杜尔曼 (Edward Dolman) 表示，计划巩固富艺斯在亚洲拍卖市场的地位。西九文化区管理局行政总裁冯程淑仪指，愿景是为香港和世界打造一个多姿多彩的新文化地带。

(经济日报)

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宏安4.2亿统一牛头角旧楼 每呎楼面9060元 重建商住项目

近年本港土地供应短缺，市区旧楼具重建价值，不少财团透过併购旧楼，以增加土地储备；最新宏安併购的牛头角定业街12至26号旧楼，消息人士指，该项目以约4.2亿成功统一业权发展，每方呎楼面收购价约9060元，料日后将重建成商住项目。

市区优质地皮罕有，近年吸引各路发展商于牛头角一带旧楼「插旗」发展，最新宏安亦积极拓展牛头角一带版图发展，该公司併购多年的定业街12至26号旧楼，消息人士指，上述项目已成功併购100%业权发展，涉及总金额约4.2亿，若以可建总楼面约46359方呎计，每方呎楼面地价约9060元。安宏回覆本报查询时指，确认上述项目为该公司的併购项目。

可建楼面逾4.6万呎

有代理表示，上述定业街12至26号旧楼由港置该行併购，近期已完成併购，他认为，该项目邻近港铁站，极具重建价值，而且该盘邻近将来亦有不少重建项目，未来区内将展现全新面貌，是一个全新住宅区。

上述旧楼位于定业街12至26号，涉及多幢楼高5层的商住旧楼，地下为商铺、楼上则为住宅楼层。上述旧楼早于1972年至1978年之间落成，至今楼龄超过43年。该旧楼群毗邻观塘道休憩处，邻近港铁牛头角站，步行前往约6分鐘。整个项目地盘面积约5151方呎，若以重建地积比9倍重建发展，可建总楼面约46359方呎。

距港铁站数分鐘步程

事实上，除上述项目外，周边不少旧楼亦获发展商收购，如万科香港今年9月申请强制拍卖的定富街45至47号华发楼、49至51号安贤楼、53至63号定胜楼3幢旧楼；据土地审裁处文件显示，目前万科已集齐约91.67%至93.75%的业权，餘下5个单位并未成功收购，市场对整个项目估值约3.59229251亿。

上述旧楼位于定富街45至63号 (单号)，现址为3幢楼高6层的商住旧楼，分别为45至47号华发楼、49至51号安贤楼、53至63号定胜楼，地下约有10个商铺，楼上则为住宅楼层，共提供50个住宅单位；上述旧楼早于1971年至1972年之间落成，至今楼龄逾50年。有业内人士指出，不少发展商面对夺地难问题，故吸引财团加入併购旧楼行列，在经济逐步復甦下，部分发展商更加快收购步伐。

(星岛日报)

荃湾全幢商住楼1.2亿沽

儘管变种病毒来势汹汹，惟民生区物业仍受捧，再录大手成交，消息指，荃湾兆和街全幢商住楼以约1.2亿易手，呎价约1.85万，料买家享回报约2.35厘。

综合市场消息指出，荃湾兆和街31及33号全幢，总楼面约6486方呎，以约1.2亿易手，呎价约18501元。据知情人士透露，该铺现时由按摩店及批发公司以约23.5万承租，料买家享回报约2.35厘。

平均呎价1.85万

有代理指出，上述铺位具合併重建价值，成交价属合理水平，儘管踏入年尾，惟本港疫情走势平稳，带动近期铺位市场频录大手成交，铺位市况受零售市道影响，若中港两地通关，料明年首季铺位租金稳步上扬。

盛滙基金创办人李根兴评论指，上述铺位人流量不俗，加上门面阔近400呎，于日后亦具博收购潜力，但该物业为住宅契，对投资者吸引力稍逊，成交价属市价水平。

柯士甸道地铺5800万沽

另外，消息指，佐敦柯士甸道55至73号幸运大厦地下铺，面积约1020方呎，以约5800万售出，呎价约56863元，据悉，该铺由食肆以13万租用，料买家享租金回报约2.69厘。据悉，原业主于1996年9月以1261万买入，持货25年帐面获利4539万，物业期间升值约3.6倍。

(星岛日报)

东傲新录成交呎价9600元

疫市下工厦「硬净」，市场频录成交，由麒丰资本与傅老榕家族旗下广兴置业集团合作发展的新蒲岗工厦东傲新录成交，为中层单位02室，面积约738方呎，成交价约708.5万，呎价约9600元。

该项目楼花期逾半年，该项目自推出以来反应不俗，早前推出3，11，12，15及16楼，已售出逾90％单位，套现逾6亿，其中16楼全层，建筑面积12769方呎，成交呎价9500元，涉资逾1.21亿。该项目高层以呎价1.15万成交，创区内工厦呎价新高。

洪英伟早前表示，对销情感满意，项目为区内于过去15年以来首个全新工厦拆售项目。对于新变种病毒Omicron来势汹汹，洪氏认为，疫情走势难以预测，惟中港两地有机会通关，届时将对工商市场带来刺激作用。

嘉力每呎6194元市价沽

工厦市场频录成交，综合市场消息指出，荃湾嘉力工业中心A座低层2室，面积约1017方呎，以约630万售出，呎价约6194元，业内人士指出，上述成交价贴近市价。

据代理行资料显示，该工厦A座中层7室，面积1862方呎，于上月以800万售出，呎价约4296元；另一成交为A座中层17室，面积852方呎，于上月以395万售出，呎价约4636元。柴湾新业工业大厦低层B室，面积约3044方呎，以约1100万售出，呎价约3613元。

(星岛日报)

Kerry ends 16-year URA drought with $5.5b win

Kerry Properties (0683) has won the bid for the Urban Renewal Authority's Hung Fook Street/Ngan Hon Street development project in To Kwa Wan for HK$5.59 billion, beating seven other competitors.

That is also the first time that Kerry has won a URA project since 2005.

The project covers a site area of 4,581 square meters and will provide a maximum total gross floor area of 41,229 square meters upon completion.

The successful developer will be required to construct the development in compliance with the requirements of the master design control of To Kwa Wan as set out in the agreement of the project to create synergy with adjoining development projects of the URA,

The project will also enhance the livability of the district by adopting place-making and smart initiatives.

Separately, The Wharf (0004) has paid HK$700 million together with four sites totaling 190,000 sq ft in Tung Chung to Ebenezer School in exchange for the redevelopment of the current site of the school at Pok Fu Lam, local media said.

The developer plans to build a luxury residential project with sea views, whose market value is expected to be as high as HK$10 billion, the report said.

In other news, The Yoho Hub project atop Yuen Long MTR Station unveiled the first batch of 206 units with an average price of HK$19,899 after discounts, the highest among new projects in Yuen Long.

Ranging from 325 sq ft to 1,036 sq ft, the batch provides one-bedroom units to four-bedroom units.

The cheapest flat is priced at HK$6.85 million after discounts, or at HK$21,082 per sq ft, the developer Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) said.

Meanwhile, the mortgage-related one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate is expected to stay below 0.4 percent while the mortgage interest rate is to reach 1.7 percent as the greenback is turning strong, a mortgage broker said.

That came as investment house Morgan Stanley expected Hong Kong property prices to fall 2 percent year-on-year next year and the volume of transactions to drop by 5 percent to 15 percent.

(The Standard)

Hong Kong’s home prices to fall in 2022 as stock market slump creates ‘negative wealth effect’, Morgan Stanley says, marking a halt in city’s decade-long real estate bull run

Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong’s 2022 home prices to fall by 2 per cent, going against the market’s consensus of gains between 3 and 10 per cent

Sales volume of lived-in homes may contract by 15 per cent next year, in a drastic retreat from the 29 per cent surge in the first 11 months of this year, the bank said

The prices of Hong Kong’s lived-in homes may decline in 2022, reversing 13 years of gains, as a plunge in the stock market has created a “negative wealth effect” on investors and speculators, Morgan Stanley said.

Overall prices may fall by 2 per cent next year, the US bank’s equity analyst Praveen Choudhary wrote in a December 15 report, going against the market’s consensus for prices to gain by between 3 per cent and up to 10 per cent.

Sales volume of lived-in homes may contract by 15 per cent next year in the secondary market, in a drastic retreat from the 29 per cent surge in the first 11 months of this year, he said. Transactions of newly built homes may shrink by 5 per cent next year, compared with the 24-per cent growth so far this year.

The contrarian forecast was the result of the 18 per cent slump in the Hang Seng stock benchmark since July 1 – the world’s second-biggest loser this year – that “suggests a negative wealth effect which has historically resulted in a decline in property prices,” he wrote.

There are signs that home prices in Hong Kong, the world’s most expensive major urban centre to live in for the 10th straight year in 2019, may have reached a turning point. Second-hand home prices fell by 0.86 per cent in October from a peak in August, the biggest monthly decline in 14 months as the city’s commercial banks turned cautious on valuations.

As a result, property-related stocks may perform worse than even the Hang Seng Index (HSI) in 2022, Morgan Stanley said, downgrading its view on the sector to “cautious” from “attractive.”

“The recent decline in the HSI generally should be followed by property sector underperformance due to a negative wealth effect, based on historical data,” he wrote. “We expect the HK property stock index to underperform the Hang Seng Index in 2022.”

Rising interest rates will also act as the brake on rising home prices, as Hong Kong’s monetary policy runs in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve, which has foreshadowed three rate increases of 25 basis points each in 2022, to be followed by three increases in 2023 and two in 2024.

Still, Hong Kong’s commercial banks are unlikely to raise their mortgage rates immediately after rising interest rates, a mortgage broker said. The market also knows how to adjust to keep pace, as shown by the 16 per cent discounts on lived-in flats offered after Hong Kong’s banks raised their lending rates in September 2018 by 12.5 percentage points.

“Banks in Hong Kong may increase their prime rates in the second half of 2022 only if US inflation rises at a faster-than- expected pace,” the mortgage broker said.

Contrary to Morgan Stanley’s forecast of doom, property analysts and consultants remain bullish.

A property agency has forecast a 3 per cent increase in home prices next year for Hong Kong, while another agency sees growth of up to 5 per cent, and the agencies projected prices to increase by between 5 and 10 per cent.

The positive outlook in 2022 is due to limited supply of homes, Hong Kong’s improving economy and the expectation that a reopening of the city’s border with mainland China would give transactions – and therefore prices – a leg up.

Underscoring the bullishness, Sun Hung Kai Properties (SHKP), the city’s largest developer by market value, released the first 206 units of The Yoho Hub residential project above the Yuen Long subway station at an average price of HK$19,889 per square foot, a record launch price for the neighbourhood.

“While supply remains limited, potential new regulations on that front are unknown and can only be negative,” Morgan Stanley said. “Extra demand could come from the HK/China border opening, but it only affects 10 per cent of the volume at the high-end.”