The mortgage-related one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate surged by 40 basis points to 4.83881 percent yesterday while mortgages for completed homes slumped 20 percent monthly to 5,308, a seven-month low.

For the first 11 months this year, the number of mortgages for existing homes plunged 17.2 percent yearly to 77,450, data from mortgage broker revealed.

Further, mortgage applications for presold homes also plummeted 30 percent monthly to 255 in November, while sinking by 28.9 percent to 3,895 for the first 11 months, marking a new low for November since 2011.

The mortgage broker cited the continuous fall of home prices amid global interest rate hikes as the reasons behind the slump, and expects the number of applications to fall further in this month, leading to a 20 percent decrease in mortgages for existing homes and about 30 percent for presold homes for the whole year.

Meanwhile, the number of licensed property agents shrank by 250 or 0.6 percent to 41,239 in November, a new 15-month low, data from Estate Agents Authority showed.

The number also shrank by 1,169 or 2.8 percent from a peak of 42,408 agents in February.

As agents left, a local property agency’s commissions in November fell to about HK$153 million, the second-lowest in six years and 10.8 percent lower than last month.

Separately, China's developer CNQC International (1240) acquired a site at Yee Kuk Street in Sham Shui Po through a compulsory sale with a reserve price of HK$260 million.

CNQC had bought a group of old buildings with a site area of 4,329 square feet, including two blocks of five to six storeys with residential flats.

(The Standard)

Goldman Sachs Hong Kong home price forecast of 30 per cent drop too bearish, JP Morgan analyst argues

The most pessimistic forecasts of a 30 per cent decline are ‘fundamentally wrong’, JP Morgan analyst says

The US investment bank believes the decline will total 20 per cent by May 2023 from a peak in August 2021

Predictions of a 30 per cent drop in Hong Kong home prices by the end of 2023 are too pessimistic, according to JP Morgan.

Goldman Sachs in October forecast that prices would fall by 15 per cent in both 2022 and 2023. But JP Morgan believes the decline will total 20 per cent by May 2023 from a peak in August 2021. The full-year price decline in 2023 will be 8 per cent, mostly concentrated in the first half of the year, it said in a report released on Wednesday.

The view that home prices would correct by 30 per cent based on the median formula was “fundamentally wrong”, Cusson Leung, JP Morgan’s head of Hong Kong property research, told the Post on Thursday.

The most pessimistic forecasts, Leung said, assumed that if mortgage payments increased, home prices would have to drop by enough to maintain the affordability ratio – the ratio of mortgage payment to median household income.

“I think fundamentally, that is very different from what happened in reality,” he said.

A market index has lost 16.5 per cent since its peak of 191.34 in early August 2021.

“I think other people are wrong,” Leung said. “People are just having a too bearish expectation of the interest rate, that it will keep rising forever. As long as it is not continuing this increase, sentiment from buyers will start to return.”

Hong Kong’s interest rate lags behind the US interest rate, said Leung, and banks already had a strong buffer because they were stress testing loan applications against a higher interest rate.

Meanwhile, Leung does not believe the government is going to relax any of the cooling measures that some believe are holding back the market. “There’s no urgency at all” because doing so would not particularly help with the government’s objectives. In addition, the increase since 2009 dwarfs the current price decline, he said.

Overall property transactions in November fell for the third straight month, nosediving 16.7 per cent month over month to 3,701, the lowest since 3,038 in December 2018, according to the property agency. Transaction value fell to HK$30.18 billion (US$3.88 billion), the lowest since HK$29 billion in January 2020.

The slump reflects factors such as the continuous rise of interest rates and the uncertain economic outlook, according to the agency.

(South China Morning Post)

美國銀行中心單位空置4年終租出

近期踏入商廈租賃旺季，指標甲廈單位紛錄欠租，其中亦不乏交吉多時的單位，美國銀行中心一個低層單位，空置4年，以每呎55元租出，屬市價水平。

市場消息透露，美國銀行中心低層06至08室，面積約1650方呎，早於2018年11月交吉，業主以每呎55放盤，期間並沒有減價，惟經歷動亂及疫情持續，該廈紛錄低價承租，直至近期踏入租賃旺季，該單位以每呎55元租出，月租約9萬，屬市價水平。據了解，該單位望長江集團中心二期地盤，景觀一般。

有代理則表示，近期踏入租賃旺季，指標甲廈連錄承租，不少盤源交吉一段時間，最終成功租出，隨着盤源減少，未來租金趨向平穩。

每呎55元市價水平

日前，金鐘甲廈海富中心亦錄一宗租賃，一個優質單位於交吉逾一年後，以每呎32元租出，租金屬今年以來次低。海富中心二座中層1D室，面積約2040方呎，擁海景，單位於去年6月交吉放租，近日以每呎32元租出，月租6.528萬，呎租屬今年次低。市場人士指，現時屬商廈租賃旺季，皆因聖誕新年期間，很多公司老闆外遊，租賃及搬遷工作趕在12月中前完成，由於目前盤源眾多，業主紛趁旺季減租吸客租出。

(星島日報)

更多美國銀行中心寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：美國銀行中心寫字樓出租

更多海富中心寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：海富中心寫字樓出租

更多金鐘區甲級寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：金鐘區甲級寫字樓出租

更多長江集團中心二期寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：長江集團中心二期寫字樓出租

更多中環區甲級寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：中環區甲級寫字樓出租

青建底價2.6億奪醫局街舊樓 統一業權料發展商住項目

近年長沙灣及鄰近一帶舊區處於市區更新步伐，不少發展商於區內併購舊樓重建發展。最新青建國際等併購的醫局街舊樓，昨日舉行公開拍賣，該公司在無對手下以底價2.6億投得，成功統一業權發展。

市區供應罕有，不少財團透過強拍途徑增加土儲。其中青建國際等收購的深水埗醫局街舊樓，今年10月獲土地審裁處頒下強拍令，最新於昨日在萊坊舉行公開拍賣，由手持「1號牌」的青建國際代表在無對手下，以底價2.6億投得，成功統一業權發展，以可建總樓面約36662方呎計，每方呎樓面地價約7092元。

每呎樓面地價約7092元

上述項目位於醫局街163至169號 (單號)，該地區是住宅區，附近物業多為唐樓及高樓住宅大廈。主要用作五金業和各式零售。區內設有多種公共交通工具如小巴、巴士和的士等，步行至港鐵深水埗站和南昌站只需要10分鐘，極具重建價值。

該物業坐落於深水埗醫局街西南側，靠近深水埗區北河街交界處，該項目現址為2幢5至6層高商住舊樓，地下共4商鋪，主要用作五金業和各式零售；其餘樓層為住宅，涉23個單位，樓齡均逾65年。

批建22層高商住樓宇

該項目地盤面積為4329方呎，現納入「住宅 (甲類) 6」用途；該項目於2020年10月獲屋宇署批出建築圖則，獲批建1幢22層高商住樓宇，另設4層平台，涉及可建總樓面約36662方呎。

有業內人士指出，該項目鄰近港鐵站，交通方便，區內舊樓極具重建價值，故近年吸引不少財團於區內進行收購，料未來該區將有不少重建項目登場，相信日後區內將展現全新面貌，是一個全新住宅區。

除上述項目外，富豪酒店上月初亦透過強拍途徑以1.2億、統一海壇街227B至227C號舊樓業權。該項目坐落於九龍深水埗海壇街之東南面，介乎九江街與欽州街之間，現址為一幢樓高6層的商住物業，地下為商鋪，樓上為住宅，早於於1960年落成，至今樓齡約62年。上述地盤面積約2322方呎，若以9倍地積比率作商住發展，涉及可建總樓面約20898方呎。

據該公司年報顯示，海壇街227B至227C號，將聯同已完成併購的海壇街227至227A號項目合併重建為作商業/住宅發展用途，地盤面積擴展至4644方呎，若以9倍地積比率作商住發展，涉及可建總樓面約41796方呎。

事實上，今年迄今土地審裁處合共接獲22宗強拍申請，已超過去年全年的16宗，並多出6宗或37.5%。而該處今年暫批出18宗強制售賣令。另外，今年迄今市場上共舉行17場舊樓強拍物業拍賣會，對比去年21宗減少19%。

(星島日報)