‘We think the Hong Kong office market is not structurally impaired,’ Morgan Stanley’s Praveen Choudhary says

Hong Kong’s office space segment has a higher probability of making a fast turnaround than the local market’s other sluggish sector, retail property, according to Morgan Stanley.

“In our view, retail’s performance may be worse than office in terms of rental improvement, as the office market usually benefits more quickly from a sentiment boost,” said Praveen Choudhary, head of Hong Kong and India real estate research at the New York-based investment bank.

That assessment runs contrary to those of other market experts who predicted the retail sector to shake off a slump – triggered by social unrest during a wave of Hong Kong protests in 2019 and the coronavirus pandemic from 2020 – ahead of the lethargic office segment, which is saddled with excess commercial space.

Since 2019, office rents in the city have dropped by 40 per cent, according to a property agency. Last year, the segment’s rents declined by 6.3 per cent.

From 2025 to 2026, about 6 million square feet of new office space will come on line including 2.6 million sq ft at International Gateway Centre in West Kowloon and 1.06 million sq ft at Lee Garden Eight in Causeway Bay, according to data complied by a local property agency.

In the retail segment between 2019 and 2023, the city’s four core shopping locations – Causeway Bay, Tsim Sha Tsui, Central and Mong Kok – saw rents fall between 29 per cent and 47 per cent, according to another property agency. Last year, rents in this segment improved from a range of 3.2 per cent to 6.7 per cent.

New prime retail property supply this year will add about 700,000 sq ft, following the completed 1.2 million sq ft of new retail space in 2024, according to another property agency.

Still, Morgan Stanley predicted that rents in both the office and retail segments would drop by another 5 per cent this year.

Improved trading performance at Hong Kong’s stock exchange (HKEX) is expected to stimulate demand for office space in the city, according to Choudhary.

“In the case of office [rentals], higher inquiries are driven by higher trading volume at the HKEX, new listings and positive performance of recent listings,” he said.

A total of 15 companies raised US$2.3 billion via initial public offering (IPO) on the main board of the city’s stock exchange in the first three months of 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group. That marked the local bourse’s best quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021 when IPOs raised US$11.5 billion.

At the end of a holiday-shortened trading week in Hong Kong on Thursday, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.5 per cent to 22,849.81 – the lowest since February 20 – after US President Donald Trump unveiled higher tariffs on most of its trading partners including China, Japan, India, South Korea and markets across the European Union and Southeast Asia.

Hong Kong’s bellwether index, however, remained up by about 14 per cent so far this year. There are also more than 100 companies waiting to launch their IPOs in the city.

“Rentals firm up when take-up turns positive, or when there are more new leases than exits,” Choudhary said. “We will also witness ‘flight to quality’ to Central and super grade A office buildings.”

“We think the Hong Kong office market is not structurally impaired,” Choudhary said. “Hong Kong is not competing directly with Shanghai in the office sector.”

“We are more similar to Singapore and Dubai,” he said. “Overall, if the stock market continues to perform well, we think the Hong Kong office segment will make a comeback sooner than retail.”

But the moderate influx of new supply in the retail sector provides it with better prospects than the office segment, according to another two property consultancies.

One of the property consultancy expects office rents to decline by at least 5 per cent this year, while high-street retail shops in core locations are likely to see up to a 5 per cent improvement in rents.

“Given that the office sector is facing a rising vacancy rate, the market is grappling with downward rents,” an agent said. “The retail sector experienced a relatively optimistic sentiment because of the city’s series of mega-events, leading to an uptake of leasing activities in core districts and potentially driving high-street rents up.”

UBS recently revised its 2025 retail forecast to flat from an earlier estimate of a 5 per cent decline, as shopping sprees by local residents to Shenzhen abate.

Hong Kong retail sales dropped for a 12th consecutive month in February, falling 13 per cent to HK$29.4 billion from a year earlier, according to the latest data from the Census and Statistics Department.

Morgan Stanley, however, believes the consumption habits of both local residents and tourists have changed in such a way that they have become “more permanent”.

“There are structural issues in Hong Kong’s retail market, and it cannot be altered immediately,” Choudhary said. “It is fundamentally difficult for retail sales to go back to 2018 and 2019 levels. Undeniably, goods are cheaper in mainland China than in Hong Kong, regardless of currency depreciation.”

He pointed out that retail sales “are structurally challenged” on account of the Greater Bay Area integration and the ease of travel to the mainland.

“It is also extremely convenient to travel to Shenzhen for food, shopping and other entertainment purposes,’ Choudhary said. “This is a bigger driver than the [yuan] depreciation. The number of people going to Shenzhen from Hong Kong has stabilised for quite a while, at least for the past five months. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese tourists are less inclined to visit Hong Kong, as their currency is less powerful.”

(South China Morning Post)

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For more information of Grade A Office for Lease in Tsim Sha Tsui please visit: Grade A Office for Lease in Tsim Sha Tsui

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For more information of Grade A Office for Lease in Causeway Bay please visit: Grade A Office for Lease in Causeway Bay

Property retreats into wait-and-see mode

Hong Kong's property market will stay in wait-and-see mode this quarter as uncertainties in global trade and the economy dampen buyer sentiment, a property agency says.

The realtor also expects the number of transactions for the month to decline from March.

Both the trade volume and home prices will not stabilize until the economy and stock markets recover and the US Federal Reserve resumes a cycle of interest rates cuts, another property agency said.

The agency also revised its forecast for home prices, saying they might rise or fall by 3 percent in 2025, despite a 5 percent rally since the beginning of the year.

The realtor noted that the upheaval in global stock markets will affect home transactions and expects the smaller residential units will be the most traded for the rest of the year.

Grade A offices may see rentals further decline as much as 9 percent, as many enterprises adopt to a wait-and-see attitude amid increasing supply and economic uncertainties, the agency warned.

For the retail leasing market, the agency said mega events have not boosted the market as much as expected, with overall high-street retail rents in Tsim Sha Tsui and Causeway Bay falling slightly in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, a founder of a local property agency said confidence among potential homebuyers would likely be dampened by the sudden global stock sell-off and the aggressive tariffs that will hurt the economy.

He also said it was too early to tell if the stock market turbulence would trigger a further decline in property prices.

(The Standard)

Stock rout fails to deter Southsky buyer

Yesterday's stock market rout failed to dampen the spirits of a mainland home hunter who bought a flat at Southsky in Aberdeen for HK$5.1 million.

The one-bedroom flat with an area of 287 square feet was sold by tender, at a price of HK$17,770 per sq ft, the developer Emperor International (0163) revealed.

Emperor said the buyer loves the sea views of the Southern District and believes the project, which is beside the planned Aberdeen MTR station, has potential to appreciate.

Southsky has sold 100 flats so far for a total of more than HK$615 million.Only 10 flats are left for sale, including eight one-bedroom flats and two rooftop apartments.

(The Standard)

今年甲廈租金料跌7%至9% 外資代理行：受制供應及待租面積高企

有外資代理行發表報告指出，今年首季甲級寫字樓淨吸納量維持正數，錄得約14.4萬方呎正吸納量，惟租金仍然受制於待租面積高企，按季下跌2.5%，料今年整體甲級寫字樓租金仍面對下調壓力，下跌7至9%。

該行代理表示，今年首季甲級寫字樓繼續錄得14.37萬方呎正吸納量，為連續第六個季度錄得正吸納量。期內新租賃活動主要由金融及保險行業的搬遷和擴充活動為主要推動力，佔整體租賃面積約46%。

料今年樓價波幅約在3%

儘管租務活動向好，然而整體待租率按季增至19.2%，主要受到九龍東新項目THE CENDAS落成，為市場帶來35. 3萬方呎新甲廈供應影響，同時導致本港整體甲廈租金按季再跌2.5%至每月每方呎約43.9元，與2019年首季高位比較，租金累挫約42.2%。

該代理又認為，今年為寫字樓落成高峰期，預計餘下三季仍有約300萬方呎新項目陸續落成，租賃競爭將進一步加劇。由於市場需要時間吸納新供應，加上待租率高企，料今年整體甲級寫字樓租金仍會下跌7%至9%。

問及關稅戰對樓市將會造成的影響，該代理認為，美國政府政策變幻莫測，現時無論是企業還是業主「都要睇定先始會有具體行動」，相信會有3至6個月反應期，在市場充斥許多不確定因素情況下，部分大企業可能會放慢業務發展計劃。

至於商舖市道，受到來港旅客及本港居民消費模式轉變影響，本港零售表現未有跟隨旅客數字增加而有明顯改善，今年首季核心區一線街舖空置率，尖沙咀及旺角維持9.4%和8.4%，銅鑼灣街則增至5.3%。

該代理表示，預期新租賃需求繼續以內地品牌為主，以迎合近年從內地來港人口的消費習慣及喜好，同時政府積極推動旅遊業及盛事經濟，將為本港零售市場帶來刺激，預期今年中環、銅鑼灣、尖沙咀及旺角四大核心區，街舖租金將上升3%至5%。

住宅市場方面，該行另一代理指出，本港樓市受制最近環球貿易和經濟局勢帶來的不穩定性，短期內市場將持觀望態度，若經濟及股市能再企穩，同時美國年內持續減息，才能支持後市成交量持續，從而帶動樓價回穩，料今年樓價波幅在3%，成交量與去年相若。

(星島日報)

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甲廈供過於求今年租金看跌

有測量師行發表報告指出，今年首季本港整體甲廈淨吸納量，連續六個季度錄得正數，即新租出面積多過退租面積，反映租賃活動向好。市場普遍看淡，預期會繼續下跌。

綜合多間測量師行分析指出，今年甲廈租金將有5%至10%下跌空間，其中一個重要因素是供應量增加，今年餘下三個季度料約有300萬方呎新項目落成；另一個因素是待租率高企，今年首季按季上升至接近兩成。

據差估署數據顯示，去年私人寫字樓空置率達16.3%，創歷史新高，空置樓面逾2331萬方呎。

當中甲廈空置樓面達1572萬方呎，按年增加90萬方呎。

(星島日報)

工商舖首季錄1065宗註冊 低位反彈按年增逾56%

有本港代理行指，今年首季整體註冊宗數錄1065宗，按年大增約56.4%，金額錄124.14億，按年升約17.5%。首季註冊數字創3年來新高，但較2021年高峰期仍低約36%，相比高峰期仍有一段距離。

該行認為，非住宅物業價格已見底，個別板塊回報吸引，預期次季工商舖成交量或維持約1000宗水平。

首季註冊量按年升，一手工廈如海傲、寶源亞洲中心、蘢薈及金岸科技中心四個項目共158宗註冊，佔總註冊量近30%。事實上，去年第三季市況見底後，第四季數字回升，展望未來，「以價換量」趨勢持續。

代理行：工廈交投按月增56%

另一代理行代理表示，今年3月全港共錄383宗工商舖登記，按月反彈45.6%，創下近22個月次高水平；總值49.8億按月急漲58.9%。

該行另一代理指，3月份工廈買賣登記達221宗，較2月增55.6%，為近23個月次多，上月工廈登記佔比逼近60%，達57.7%，按月增3.7個百分點。3月工廈登記錄15.44億，按月升53%。

商廈登記創22個月新高

該代理表示，農曆年淡月後，購買力回流，重越逾80宗水平。總結3月全月商廈登記較2月份52宗急漲61.5%，登記量為近22個月新高。月內商廈登記總值銳升77%，錄25.31億，平均每宗逾3013萬。

店舖均價萎縮22%

該行另一代理指，店舖買賣隨大市回暖，惟升幅相對少。數據顯示，2025年3月份店舖登記共78宗，按月升13%。月內總值僅9.05億，逆市跌11.7%，為近5個月以來最少，每宗均價1160.26萬，按月萎縮22%

(星島日報)

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北角港運大廈 交通方便配套完善

北角港運大廈每層樓面大，而周邊配套完善，屬可供買賣的商廈中，質素較佳的物業。

港運大廈位於北角英皇道510號，交通上，由北角港鐵站步行至該廈，需時5至10分鐘，大廈接近東區走廊，來往九龍亦相當便利。物業門口有多條巴士綫及電車站，至於大廈旁設有的士上落客位，非常方便。

飲食配套方面，大廈為北角港運城其中一部分，設有數層商場，提供不同類型餐廳，對面有健威坊商場。此外，步行5分鐘可前往近年開業的北角匯，有更多商店。

港運大廈於1997年推售，樓齡尚算新，大堂及分層走廊，均鋪有雲石及地氈。物業一大賣點，地下大堂樓底特高，加上玻璃間隔，空間感強兼甚有氣派，質素為同區可供買賣商廈中最佳。

每層2.1萬呎 可分間約12單位

寫字樓由3樓起，每層面積約2.1萬平方呎，可分間10至12個單位。

景觀上，各層樓面號碼及坐向未必相同，以5、6及7室景觀最佳，望向英皇道，高層單位更享海景，惟略受其他建築物遮擋，而其他單位則望向樓景，尚算開揚。

買賣上，由於大業主之一的中巴，現持有物業中高層多層單位作長綫收租，而部分樓層則由金融機構持有自用，故可供買賣的單位，絕大部分僅為中低層，一直買賣較少，近5年買賣欠奉，直至本年初，英基學校協會新近購置兩層寫字樓作自用，涉及北角港運大廈12樓及13樓兩層全層寫字樓。兩層寫字樓總建築面積合共約40,380平方呎，現已交吉。而英基學校協會計劃於今年由現租用的鰂魚涌辦公室遷入該廈。

英基方面表示，機構將於今年稍後遷入作為英基學校協會的全新總部。買方是次未有透露收購價，市場人士估計料涉約3.2億元，呎價約8,000元。據了解，兩層樓面原由安樂工程創辦人潘樂陶或有關人士持有，2010年斥2.35億元購入樓面，持貨15年沽出，獲利約8,500萬元。

租務方面，今年大廈錄兩宗租務，包括上月物業高層2至4室，面積約4,753平方呎，以13.7萬元租出，呎租約29元。

低層全層招租 月租逾40萬元

港運大廈為北角指標項目，現物業低層，以每呎約20元招租。

面積20090呎 意向呎租20

有本港代理行代理表示，北角英皇道港運大廈低層全層現招租，該項目全層面積約20,090平方呎，意向呎租約20元，涉及月租約40餘萬元。

單位設計方正實用，樓底特高，配備裝修及傢俬，租戶可即租即用，節省裝修時間與成本。

同時，業主亦提供靈活的空間規劃，可因應租客需要而分間樓面出租，面積最細可由5,000餘平方呎起。

據悉，該層樓面原由一家工程公司租用，租客早前遷往東九龍。

同區市況上，泓富產業千禧廣場近期錄租務成交，涉及中層05至06室，面積約1,788平方呎，成交呎租約24元。

(經濟日報)

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